Representation & Regime Structure

I study how representation choices constrain inference, prediction, and decision-making under regime change in complex systems.

Representation as Building Blocks

I focus on the modeling components themselves, not just their assembly. Different building blocks induce different geometries, expressive limits, and failure modes.

Representationbuilding blocksselection spaceModelassembled approximationpartial matchRealitytarget systemclean boundaryalternative representations

Research Focus

Most modeling approaches start by choosing a model and then trying to make it fit the data. My work focuses on an earlier and often overlooked question:


How do we describe a system in the first place?


Different ways of describing a system highlight different aspects of how it behaves. Some descriptions work well in one situation but quietly break when conditions change. I study how these choices affect what models can reliably infer or predict, and how to recognize when assumptions no longer hold.

SystemDescriptionmodels · variables · wordsObservationoriginstructureassumptionsaffordances

Regime Awareness

Many systems operate across multiple regimes. Understanding where assumptions hold, and where they break, is essential for robust modeling.

Research

In Progress

Topic: Engineering & Physics

Andrew Garcia

2026
Submitted

Topic: Representations for Forecasting

Andrew GarciaSubmitted (double-blind review)

2026
Working Paper

Metadata-Guided Variable Selection for High-Dimensional Macroeconomic Forecasting

Andrew Garcia & Marco VegaBCRP Working Paper (forthcoming)

2026

Research Principles

  • Representation before optimization
  • Explicit assumptions and limits
  • Interpretability over black-box performance
  • Validation through simulation and data